Euro has appreciated 25% against the yen and 10% against the dollar in the last six months, due to measures taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) to support monetary union, but also because of the global economic games.
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned on Monday of “increased politicization” of exchange rates. Weidman’s statement focused on Japan, which has made aggressive efforts to support the economy even by accelerating inflation, according to the Financial Times.
United States remains determined to pursue unconventional monetary policy measures, which included adding more liquidity on financial markets, while the depreciated British pound was semi-officially approved in the United Kingdom, the largest trading partner of the euro area, and encouraged by talks on leaving the EU.
If today there is a global secret war of exchange rates, the ECB does not take part in the action, a situation that raises the level of concern of the European bank, according to Financial Times.
Late last year, the ECB president, Mario Draghi, seemed to try to devalue the currency, saying in December that there were active discussions for the further easing of monetary policy. In addition, the ECB chief comments on euro area economic outlook were grim.
In January, however, probably surprised by the confidence in the euro, Draghi insisted that during the meeting of the first month of the year there were no talks about a reduction in interest rates, according to Financial Times.
Asked directly about the stronger euro, Draghi said that the exchange rate is important in assessing the economic outlook, but the currency is not “a target of bank policies.” Finally, Draghi said that the euro exchange rate is in line with the long-term average, a statement which strengthened the impression that this is not an immediate concern. For some conservative politicians, euro appreciation is probably a welcome sign of returning confidence in the monetary union.
A currency can be too strong for the general good of the economy. Even if it is in line with the long-term average, the context is exceptional, especially for the economies at the eurozone periphery. The unemployment rate is nearly 12% in the eurozone, compared to about 8% in the U.S. and ECB expects the economy to contract again this year.
A strong euro threatens to “strangle” the exports, one of the last sources of growth in the eurozone, according to British bank Barclays. Even German exporters have reason to be worried, especially because of the auto industry, heavily dependent on external sales. Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg prime minister who quit this week as head of the Eurogroup, said recently that the euro is at a “dangerously high level”.
All this means that Draghi needs a backup plan. In the first phase he could use verbal intervention, but the ECB could go even further, to provide long-term liquidity and reduce the interest rate again. Since short-term interest rates are the most important and the ECB overnight rates for deposits by the credit institutions at the bank reached zero, this might cause negative interest rates, a first for the European Central Bank.
Draghi has shown that he can take radical measures if necessary. ECB chief’s commitment to do “whatever is necessary” to preserve the integrity of the euro has completely changed the situation on the financial markets, arguing that he does not exclude any option, writes Financial Times.
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